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\u536b\u751f\u90e8\u526f\u90e8\u957f Tran Van Thuan \u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u542f\u52a8\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4eba\u53e3\u884c\u52a8\u6708\u548c\u7eaa\u5ff5\u8d8a\u5357\u4eba\u53e3\u65e5\uff0812 \u6708 26 \u65e5\uff09\u4eea\u5f0f\u4e0a\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d8b\u52bf\u8868\u793a\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002<\/p>\n
Thuan \u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u7ef4\u6301\u5168\u56fd\u7684\u751f\u80b2\u66ff\u4ee3\u6c34\u5e73\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u56f0\u96be\uff0c\u51fa\u751f\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u53d8\u5f97\u660e\u663e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u867d\u7136\u51fa\u751f\u6027\u522b\u6bd4\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf\u5df2\u5f97\u5230\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u4f46\u52302023\u5e74\uff0c\u51fa\u751f\u6027\u522b\u6bd4\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u8fbe112\uff1a100\uff0c\u4e14\u6ca1\u6709\u51cf\u7f13\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u6b63\u5728\u5feb\u901f\u8001\u9f84\u5316\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u7ea2\u5229\u671f\u5373\u5c06\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u7ae5\u5a5a\u3001\u8fd1\u4eb2\u7ed3\u5a5a\u3001\u9752\u5c11\u5e74\u6000\u5b55\u3001\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u5e73\u4f4e\u4e0b\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u4e9f\u5f85\u89e3\u51b3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u52a0\u5267\u8fd9\u4e00\u6311\u6218\u7684\u662f\u5404\u7701\u548c\u57ce\u5e02\u4eba\u53e3\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0d\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u4eba\u53e3\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u968f\u7740 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u4e34\u8fd1\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0e\u4eba\u53e3\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u536b\u751f\u90e8\u547c\u5401\u4eba\u53e3\u5b98\u5458\u4fdd\u6301\u56e2\u7ed3\u3001\u79ef\u6781\u4e3b\u52a8\u548c\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u4e3a\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u4f9b\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u5404\u4e2a\u90e8\u95e8\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u5b9e\u65bd\u4eba\u53e3\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u57fa\u91d1\u9a7b\u8d8a\u5357\u4ee3\u8868 Matt Jackson \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u4eba\u53e3\u9ec4\u91d1\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53d7\u629a\u517b\u4eba\u90fd\u6709\u4e24\u540d\u5de5\u4f5c\u5e74\u9f84\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u4f9b\u517b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u81ea 2011 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u901f\u5ea6\u8fdc\u8fdc\u5feb\u4e8e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5230 2036 \u5e74\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u5c06\u8fdb\u5165\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5230 2049 \u5e74\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u5c06\u8fdb\u5165\u8d85\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u793e\u4f1a\u3002\u8be5\u56fd\u8fd8\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u4f4e\u751f\u80b2\u7387\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c2023 \u5e74\u7684\u603b\u751f\u80b2\u7387 (TFR) \u4e3a 1.96\u3002<\/p>\n
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Jackson\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u57fa\u91d1\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u652f\u6301\u8d8a\u5357\u6539\u5584\u83b7\u5f97\u4f18\u8d28\u751f\u6b96\u548c\u6027\u5065\u5eb7\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u751f\u6b96\u6743\u5229\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u5b55\u4ea7\u5987\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u3001\u6536\u96c6\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u636e\u3001\u89e3\u51b3\u6027\u522b\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u548c\u6027\u522b\u66b4\u529b\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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