On December 15th, data released by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade showed that Indonesia exported 7,458.64 tons of refined tin in November, a 182% increase month-on-month and a 25.6% increase year-on-year. Cumulative exports from January to November 2025 are projected to reach 48,435 tons, a 17.2% increase year-on-year.
Indonesia is the world’s second-largest tin producer, primarily exporting refined tin. Prior to this, on September 30th, the Indonesian Tin Exporters Association projected that refined tin exports would reach 53,000 tons in 2025, a significant 18% increase from 45,000 tons in the previous year, implying an expected export supply of approximately 15,000 tons in the fourth quarter of this year.
Subsequent data showed a significant decrease in Indonesian tin ingot exports in October due to the crackdown on illegal tin mining and the transfer of six shut-down smelters to the state-owned PT Timah. Indonesia exported 2,643.05 tons of refined tin in October, a 53.89% decrease year-on-year and a 46% decrease month-on-month, the lowest level since January of this year. October exports fell far short of expectations, easing previous market concerns about increased supply.
However, the situation has recently reversed. New data shows that Indonesia’s tin exports nearly tripled in November, reaching 7,459 tons, valued at $268 million. Therefore, based on Indonesia’s annual refined tin export target of 53,000 tons, December exports are expected to reach approximately 4,565 tons, significantly increasing the likelihood that Indonesia will achieve its target and reversing previous expectations that it would struggle to meet its annual goals.
Overall, the rapid recovery in exports suggests that the disruptions in October were more of a short-term administrative shock than a long-term loss of capacity. This has eased market anxieties about immediate supply. It also indicates that Indonesia’s tin supply is not fragile and has the capacity for rapid recovery, breaking the linear expectation of continued supply disruptions. However, this also reveals the instability of Indonesia’s supply, which is highly dependent on the pace of domestic policy tightening or loosening, becoming a significant factor influencing the global market. In the short term, Indonesia’s export growth in November will put some pressure on tin prices; in the long term, as a major exporter, Indonesia’s supply instability will directly affect the supply and demand balance and prices in the international market, and thus affect the profit window and trade flow of China’s refined tin import and export.